Case study: Waiver wire priorities

By Jim

I apologize for how long it has been since the previous post, it’s funny how long life can get in the way some times. So, to get back in a groove I decided to share another learning experience from “Year 1″ in my keeper league but before I talk about the move I need to give a little background.

In the single year league I play in, I found myself sitting in last place in mid-May. My pitching was horrible and weighing me down and I couldn’t find fair deals for a struggling Ryan Howard, David Ortiz or a hot Kevin Youkilis. Searching the waiver wire to fix my staff, I decided to take flyers on Gil Meche (who had just been dropped by the lone Royals fan in the league) and Ricky Nolasco. Those two moves helped me climb out of the basement and while I didn’t win the league, I was able to double my point total and earn my way into my keeper league this year.Heading into this season Meche was the second starter I took in my keeper league and I thought that with Brandon Webb I had a good 1-2 punch in a league that has only 3 starting pitcher slots. I don’t need to tell you how that is going.

Back to Meche, I finally had enough last week. His WHIP has killed me all season and after his blowup, subsequent health questions and the fact that I wasn’t going to keep Meche next year anyway, I waived him. He was immediately snapped up by an owner desperate to make up some ground in the pitching categories. I guess I could have tried to work out a deal but this guy had expressed multiple times he was interested in other pitchers of mine.

The next day it became my turn to take a gamble when another owner dropped Adrian Beltre for Fernando Nieve. Now, Beltre doesn’t help me a lot this year as he is expected to be out 6-8 weeks after his surgery earlier this week but on a team desperate for hitters and setting up for 2010 it seems like this move is a no-brainer. Beltre may not come back at 100% even next year or he may not put up the numbers he did prior to this year but doesn’t that seem like a small gamble to take for a 3B with 25+ HR power?

Ok, so the situation with my team and league allow me to take a gamble on a guy like Beltre by stashing him away for next year since we have no contracts/costs associated with our keepers. If you were required to keep Beltre at a contract of $30+, then releasing him is a sensible move.

While I replaced Meche with Kevin Correia and dropped Fred Lewis (who I kept coming into the season) for Adrian Beltre, this series of moves really became dropping a borderline keeper in Meche for a 2010 bounce back candidate in Beltre. It may not be a move that puts me over the top but it does help me build for a better 2010.