By Jim Higgins
In an effort to actually come up with helpful stuff for the fantasy baseball community I am going to start a couple of series that I hope will provide insight and answer the questions the keeper league managers are struggling to find the answers to. These different series will debut over the next few weeks, with today being the debut for one of them.
I was looking at my blog stats recently and noticed that a lot of my search engine traffic comes from people trying to find out if a specific player is keeper worthy. So let’s answer that question. Below are the top player searches that have brought people to this blog and whether the player in question is keeper worthy.In a vacuum some of these players seem like no-brainers, the perfect candidates to build your team around. However, I prefer to look at context whenever I can, and while I can’t address every single keeper format I can provide some scenarios in which it may not be so cut and dry.
Brian Matusz, P, Orioles
Formats to keep him in: If you have Matusz on a farm roster, he should be kept. If you have him on your MLB roster already and you can afford for him to use a keeper slot and a roster slot, he should be kept.
Formats not to keep him in: If you are looking to compete in 2010 and he either costs you $10 or more in auction money or is one of only 2 or 3 players you can keep, you probably have to throw him back.
Final thoughts: It will take another season or two before Matusz provides consistent value year after year. If you are in a situation where you can afford to wait for him to develop, do. Only under the most rare of circumstances should he be dropped at this point.
Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Red Sox
Formats to keep him in: The Greek God of Walks should be a top keeper candidate in all formats. With the potential for a .300+ BA and 20-30 HR, Youk’s value plays well at either corner (although this is probably the last year he has 3B eligibility).
Formats not to keep him in: Only if you are on the hook for a contract of $40+ should you consider not keeping Youk. Now in his early 30′s, it is conceivable that a manager trying to rebuild would look at Youk as an expendable piece but my suggestion here would be that if you have Youk on your roster and you are rebuilding, use his consistency and multi-position eligibility as a way to get the rebuilding pieces you are looking for.
Final thoughts: Youk is going to be a solid fantasy piece for a couple more seasons so if you have him, hopefully you are set up to win now and can enjoy the productivity he can give you. His value is even higher in leagues that use OBP and/or OPS.
David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
Formats to keep him in: Ah, Big Papi, what do we do with you. Those who kept him in 09 were pulling their hair out most of last season. If you are built to win now and have room for a 20-25 HR hitter who can only fill a UT spot then you have a case for keeping him. Personally, I’d rather keep Jim Thome if I had to chose an aging slugger with no position.
Formats not to keep him in: Devastating BA? Check. Declining OBP and OPS? Check. Power loss? Check. I think its safe to say Ortiz is unkeepable in most formats. Unless your decision is between dropping Ortiz or Omar Vizquel, your safe dumping Ortiz. If you are entertaining thoughts of keeping Vizquel, you have bigger problems.
Final thoughts: Ortiz’s name will still carry a lot of value in fantasy league’s but that is all you will get is a name. Let some other guy in your league struggle with him. Chances are his name will also help in the auction portion of your roster building he is sure to clear a few bucks from the table.
Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers
Formats to keep him in: One of my best moves last year was trading a slumping Jimmy Rollins for Ethier and John Danks. It didn’t help me much in the way of 2009 but with an OF filled with a bunch of veterans on the wrong side of 30 on a team going nowhere, I now have a great piece to rebuild my OF with. With 30+ HR potential, Ethier should be kept in almost all formats.
Formats not to keep him in: I honestly can’t think of many formats in which you would let Ethier get away. Unless your OF already has Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford, I don’t see Ethier being available in a lot of keeper leagues.
Final thoughts: Ethier is entering his peak years has shown the potential to be a top-flight fantasy OF. If you own Ethier, make sure you take advantage of what should be another 30+ HR season and if you are looking to rebuild your team, Ethier makes a good target if you hope to compete soon.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
Formats to keep him in: It’s funny to think that last year at this time we were all wondering if this kid would ever get called up. Another favorite of mine, we all knew the speed was MLB ready but we had no idea if the power ever would be. While I wouldn’t bet on him to win any HR titles, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flirt with 20/20 this year and maybe even 30/30 once he gets closer to his peak. Who wouldn’t benefit from holding onto that type of potential.
Formats not to keep him in: Like Matusz, the trouble with all young players is being able to afford the patience necessary to let them develop into the top flight MLBer’s they tease us into believing they will become.
Ricky Nolasco, P, Marlins
Formats to keep him in: I need to be upfront and say that Nolasco has bailed out my pitching staffs in single year leagues the last two years. He was a key waiver wire pickup in ’08 and I was able to trade for him after his early struggles last year and benefit from his rebound. That said, Nolasco is only a keeper in certain situations. My ideal situation for keeping Nolasco would be in a league where you have 12+ teams, keep 12+ players and you are weak on pitching. In my 12 team, 14 player keeper league I would not keep Nolasco if I he was on my roster because I have other pitchers I would prefer to keep.
Formats not to keep him in: Obviously if I am only keeping him in situations with lots of keepers and a weak roster of pitchers, I am not keeping him in most formats. That’s not to say he’s not worth targeting in your league’s draft of auction, I just think there are better players to keep.
Final thoughts: Nolasco is a useful pitcher and has been a key player for me the past two seasons but this is where keeper leagues get tricky. In my opinion it is a lot easier to reacquire Nolasco in a draft/auction for what he is worth than it is to reacquire a young player with tons of potential you really like. I am actually using this methodology with a couple of my pitchers this year so at the very least I will practice what I preach.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Red Sox
Formats to keep him in: Beltre is the toughest player on this list to gauge. Before signing with the Red Sox, I had no problems letting him go in my 12-team, 14-keeper league. But combine the fact that he is in a better lineup with the fact that my team is really weak at the corners (and my league mates are hording the best corner players) and I now have a major dilemma. Beltre is probably posing this problem for many owners and I right now I am leaning towards keeping him given my situation. In deep leagues (14+ teams) with lots of keepers (12+) he should be kept.
Formats not to keep him in: My opinion is that Beltre is not a keeper in most cases given his age, his declining bat and the fact that Boston signed him mainly to shore up the defense. Unless your league counts defense, nothing there really exudes confidence. It is true that Beltre has hit around 20 HR in 4 of the last 5 seasons but his health isn’t what it used to be.
Final thoughts: If healthy, Beltre can probably reach double digits in both HR and SB … barely. You need more power or speed that that from your starting 3B. If I personally end up keeping Beltre, it will be done kicking and screaming all the way to the keeper declaration deadline. I would not hinge my 2010 title run on keeping guys like Beltre if it can be avoided.
Brandon Webb, SP, Diamondbacks
Formats to keep him in: The other guy giving me a lot of sleepless nights is Webb. I built my keeper team around Webb last year and heading into ’09 I really thought I could make a run my first year in my league. Boy did my season crash and burn on opening day. I am willing to give Webb a mulligan because if he comes back from injury without any problems he should be a Cy Young contender again and that potential is too much for me to pass on. If you held on to him throughout all of ’09, there is no reason to bail on him now.
Formats not to keep him in: In the offseason not a lot can be done that will clearly make a difference and so my only suggestion here is that if you can’t afford to wait and see how Webb does in the spring then you need to move him. Throwing this guy back into the player pool isn’t a good idea and I strongly urge all Webb owners who stuck with him to find a way to make it work.
Final thoughts: Webb was a Cy Young winner in ’06 and finished second in the voting in ’07 and ’08. Unless he follows the Chris Carpenter path to being continually injured, this guy should rebound without any problems. Patience is an important skill to have in fantasy baseball and I strongly urge any Webb owner to continue exercising it until after the start of the season.
I hope this proves useful as you start making your keeper lists. If you have any other players you’d like to discuss, leave a comment below or send me a note using the contact page.
Related posts:
