One thing that caught my attention right before the 2011 season was an article written by Baseball HQ’s Ron Shandler, talking about player regression. I suspect that when many of us think of player regression, we think of those players coming off career years that seem most likely to see their production decline. However, the point Shandler makes is that regression works both ways, and the profit comes when you find a player coming off a down season that returns to his old self.
For keeper league owners, these are the prime targets to buy and sell as you construct your roster for next year. So, in the spirit of getting ready for 2012, here are some players that caught my eye as candidates likely to regress to their career norms.
Adam Dunn – probably one the few guys solely responsible for tanking many a fantasy team in 2011, Dunn’s lack of production seems to be more a product of luck than a loss in skill. While a significant increase in K% throws up a giant red flag, it seems that if Dunn sees his HR/F rate and his BABIP return to career levels, he could be the slugger he was pre-2011.
Traditionally, Dunn has a 46-49% FB% and when more than 20% leave the yard, you hit almost 40 HRs every year. Despite a 48% FB% though, only 10% left the yard this year for Dunn, despite being in a better park for HR hitters. A three true outcomes player, Dunn may never see his BA above .250 again, but if his power normalizes, he will still provide the type of pop most fantasy owners are desperately searching for. This may be the best opportunity to get Dunn on the cheap and it is still a skill set worth taking a chance on.
James Shields – was called out as a sleeper by many fantasy sites prior to 2011, but none of those sites predicted a Cy Young caliber performance from the vet. Shields’ skills always hinted that there was something more than the stats showed, and in 2011 he finally had both skill and luck on his side. Now, anyone thinking Shields will repeat his performance in 2012 is probably talking crazy. However, given that his skills base (8.1 K/9, 3.5 K/BB) is solid, Shields is most likely a solid #2 starter in most formats and is probably worth keeping in leagues with 8 or more keepers. Try to sell Shields’ owner on the fact that 2011 was a career year and you could have yourself a quality starter at a low cost.
Carl Crawford – based on his past performance, seems like another guy who would be the perfect buy low target. However, taking a closer look at his skills, we see a guy who could be fading fast. Crawford has never walked much in his career, but last year his BB% fell to 4%, the lowest its been since 2005. Combine that with a K% over 20% for the first time ever and you’ve got a speed guy that can’t get on base, leading to a full season low of 18 SBs. Compare that to 2008, where Crawford stole 25 bases in only 443 ABs and you have a guy who no longer is able to do what he does best. It is possible that injuries are the main reason behind his train wreck of a season, but looking at these numbers Crawford wasn’t right even when he did play. It very well could be time to see what value he has left before the rest of it heads down the tubes.
J.J. Hardy – is a guy I’m personally struggling with. I drafted Hardy before 2011 hoping improved health would land me a credible power source at a scarce position. And while 30 HRs from a SS is nice, I have to say Hardy’s .310 OBP was a killer given that I play in an OBP league. When healthy, he is a legit power hitter. But the strong points seem to end there. Even with 30 HRs, Hardy only managed 80 RBI and 76 R, and he has never profiled as a hitter who will hit over .275. Now, Hardy is definitely a useful power source but be warned that he may not be the best keeper given his struggles to contribute in other categories. Also, his health history isn’t that great so now may be the best time to get the most value from him.
So, as you set out to build your 2012 roster, make sure you look for players’ whose 2011’s look different from the rest of their careers. It may just help you avoid one player’s down year while benefiting from another player’s bounce back season.
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Interesting take on Crawford. I would see him as a clear regression to the norm candidate, given his great career, great 2010 season, and relatively young age (30). I have a hard time believing that he’s gone from Stud to Dud in one year at his age.
A speed guy who saw his skills drop in all the wrong categories (BB%, K%, SB opportunities) makes me nervous. I could be completely wrong here but something feels off to me.