Top 25 first base keepers

Other Top 25 lists: SP | OF | C

These rankings are based on projected cumulative value over the next 5 years.  Minor league players have been excluded.  Players who also qualify at a more-scarce position (2B, 3B, SS, C) have also been excluded and will be ranked at that more-scarce position.

Rank	Player	Birthdate	Career Mode
1	Miguel Cabrera	4/18/83	Prime
2	Albert Pujols	1/16/80	Prime
3	Joey Votto	9/10/83	Prime
4	Prince Fielder	5/9/84	Prime
5	Adrian Gonzalez	5/8/82	Prime
6	Mark Texeira	4/11/80	Prime
7	Eric Hosmer	10/24/89	Growth
8	Billy Butler	4/18/86	Growth
9	Ryan Howard	11/19/79	Slight Decline
10	Brandon Belt	4/20/88	Growth
11	Freddy Freeman	9/12/89	Growth
12	Lucas Duda	2/3/86	Growth
13	Michael Morse	3/22/82	Prime
14	Justin Morneau	5/15/81	Prime
15	Ike Davis	3/22/87	Growth
16	Paul Konerko	3/5/76	Decline Soon
17	Lance Berkman	2/10/76	Decline Soon
18	Adam Lind	7/17/83	Prime
19	Yonder Alonso	4/8/87	Growth
20	Carlos Pena	5/17/78	Prime
21	Justin Smoak	12/5/86	Growth
22	Kendrys Morales	6/20/83	Prime
23	Gaby Sanchez	9/2/83	Prime
24	Paul Goldschmidt	9/10/87	Growth
25	Adam Dunn	11/9/79	Prime

It was difficult for me not to rank Pujols No. 1 on this list.  The fact that Cabrera’s skills are improving each year and that he’s 3 years younger coupled with the decline in Pujols’ skills and overall performance was just enough to convince me that Cabrera’s cumulative value over the next 5 years will exceed that of Mr. Pujols.

 

I’m obviously pretty bullish on the Royals duo of Hosmer and Butler.  I really like the plate discipline and contact ability they have both displayed in their pro careers and there is untapped power in both of their bats.  The latter could be greatly enhanced by the former when they reach their respective peaks.

 

Belt, Freeman and Duda all ended up higher than I expected.  After the top 6 elite 1B there is a precipitous drop-off to unproven players with potential (Hosmer, Butler, Belt, Freeman, Duda, Alonso and Smoak), players whose forecasts are foggy due to significant injuries (Howard, Morneau, Davis and Morales), players with suspect skills (Morse, Lind, Pena, Goldschmidt and Dunn), and finally the two older studs who aren’t likely to be playing regularly more than another 2-3 years (Berkman and Konerko).

 

I have to admit that I was one of the doubters who wondered if Belt’s power breakout across three levels of the minors in 2010 was legit. While he may have struggled initially in the bigs this year, he went back to AAA, straightened out his swing (and the stuff between his ears), and then put on a power display as a part-time player over the last couple months of the season (8 HR in 130 AB).  I’m going to break from the rest of my peers and say that his power is real and I believe it will be more than the 20 HR that most pundits have projected for his prime.  I’m projecting 25-30 HR per year during his peak seasons, beginning in 2014.

 

Lucas Duda is probably the biggest surprise on this list.  Humor me for a minute and pretend you don’t know who I’m talking about and see if these facts impress:

 

• 6’ 5” 250 LBS – 26 years of age for the entire 2012 season
• Makes hard, consistent contact (typically 80% or better as a pro and confirmed in 300+ MLB at-bats during 2011).
• Solid plate discipline leading to BB rates at or above 10% in every season as a pro.
• ISO power of .295 in AAA in 2010 and 2011, with a solid .189 as a regular Major League 1B in 2011.
• Lacks elite bat-speed, but succeeds with size/strength, opp-field approach, and natural barrel-to-ball ability.

This is the profile of a somewhat late-bloomer who could hit .280/.350/.500 with 20-25 HRs for the foreseeable future.

 

If Morales and Morneau are healthy going forward I will have ranked them too low.  If they continue to struggle to recover from their respective ailments I will have ranked them too high.  Given what they have produced over the last season and a half (zero – zilch) I feel that these rankings are more on the bullish side with the advantage going to Morneau because of his longer, more consistent track record of production.