Building on my previous post about player regression, here are four more candidates likely to experience some regression to their career norms (both bad and good) in 2012 and whether or not they are worth targeting for your keeper league team.
Curtis Granderson – shocked the world by hitting 41 HR in 2011 and those thinking he will repeat that performance in 2012 will be in for quite a surprise. Granderson excelled in his second season with the Yankees but many of his surface stats improved because of the opportunities he had, not necessarily because his skills are getting better.
Granderson’s power spike is mostly supported by his skills so a 30 HR season may not be out of the question, but be ready for those HR to come with a ton of strikeouts (21% K% in 2011) and a BA in the .240-.250 range.
Given the lack of overall power in the majors the last two years, Granderson is probably still worth keeping in most situations but if you can find an owner in your league willing to pay based on last year’s performance, he should be easy to part with.
Asdrubal Cabrera – will likely be one of the biggest question marks in 2012 given that he is coming off a career year and plays one of the hardest positions to fill on a fantasy roster. The 25 HR, 92 RBI and 17 SB all look attractive but Cabrera isn’t likely to repeat those numbers.
Cabrera’s HR numbers spiked thanks to an increase in FB% and an even larger increase in HR/FB% while his SB numbers were boosted by an increase in opportunities. Had he converted more than 77% of his steal attempts, Cabrera likely would’ve finished the season as a 20/20 player and would be even harder to figure out.
While SS is a tough position to fill in any format, if you decide to keep Cabrera, do so knowing he won’t reach his 2011 numbers. He may still put up decent numbers in 2012 but expect stats more along the lines of 15/10 rather than 20/20.
Evan Longoria – got off to a slow start thanks to an oblique injury at the start of the year but once he got healthy he was able to rack up 31 HR and 99 RBI in 483 AB. The biggest blemish in last year’s numbers was his .244 BA but most of that can be attributed to a BABIP in the .240s.
Hidden in the numbers is the fact that Longoria improved his K% and BB% while maintaining his power. Add in all the problems at 3B in the majors last year and there may not be a better keeper option in any league under any circumstances. If you can manage to pry him away from his owner there may be no better time, just keep talking about the .244 BA and see what happens. You’ll be glad you did.
Jayson Werth – signed one of the biggest free agent contracts before the 2011 season and followed that up as one of the biggest disappointments in the majors. I’m going to let my bias show here a little bit and say I wasn’t surprised with Werth’s collapse as I’ve never been a big believer in his skills. The biggest problem for Werth last year was not having Ryan Zimmerman‘s bat to protect him in the lineup for a long stretch last year. Being called upon to carry the Nationals offense, Werth hit only .232 (including a .184 BA against LHP) and struck out in almost 30% of his ABs.
I would expect similar results to last year’s 20 HR, 58 RBI and .232 BA in 2012 and Werth is not someone I would target if I was looking for a bounce-back candidate. Again, that may be my bias showing but seeing how much his skills declined last year, and given the fact that he will be 33 in 2012, I don’t see many reasons to expect a return to his Philly numbers.
Once again, as you set out to improve your rosters for 2012, make sure you’re looking to see whether a breakout or a letdown was a result of a player’s skills or an outcome of luck.
Have a player to nominate for Part 3 of this series? Let us know in the comments or by sending us an e-mail.
Related posts:
