Fantasy baseball rankings for 2012 were shaken up in a major way on Tuesday when it was announced that Detroit C Victor Martinez would miss most (if not all) of 2012 due to a torn ACL.
While the impact in redraft leagues is obvious, this is the type of injury keeper owners dread as they now have to weigh VMart’s lack of 2012 value against his value for 2013 and beyond when deciding on this year’s set of keepers.
So, what should a current Martinez owner do?
Valued more for his bat than his defense behind the plate, Martinez has shifted from a 20 HR/year full-time C to a .300+ BA C/1B/DH hybrid. Either of these strengths are valuable when it comes to a C, but ever since he left Cleveland, Martinez has found himself being used more frequently as a DH, meaning his keeper value (and possibly fantasy value in general) is dropping quickly.
Martinez controls the strike zone well, as evidenced by his 8% BB% and only 9% K% last season, meaning the .300+ BA should be a regular thing but for a player that may only qualify at UT/DH by 2014, is that really a good use of a roster spot?
Having just turned 33, it’s a pretty safe bet that the days of 20 HR are not coming back. Martinez was able to save a lot of his value by driving in 102 runs but there is no guarantee he can do that again (or that his teammates will give him that many opportunities to do so).
Unfortunately, the case for keeping Martinez is pretty weak. Even those rebuilding in 2012 in hopes of making a run in 2013 can’t justify sitting on Martinez for a year.
If you are one of the unlucky VMart owners out there, my apologies. Here’s to hoping your 2012 title run isn’t now DOA because of this news.
If Martinez was guaranteed to continue to qualify at C, I would argue strongly that his owners should keep him if possible. However, coming off a serious knee injury, I find it hard to believe that the Tigers let him catch at all once he finally returns.
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