As a lifelong Padres fan, this year is one that really tests how much of a fan you are. And it isn’t as much about the losses that are piling up as it is about the fact that there’s not much on this team to cheer for.

For all the great minor league talent San Diego has acquired recently, I’ve found that at the major league level the only hitter I actually look forward to watching is 1B Yonder Alonso. I had the opportunity to check out Alonso when the Padres were in D.C. to play the Nationals this week, and here are my thoughts on him as they relate to keeper leagues.

The first thing I noticed watching Alonso play Monday night and Tuesday afternoon is that he has a smooth swing. It doesn’t generate a ton of loft but it looks easy and I finally understand why many scouts feel Alonso is a good fit for San Diego. Even though I saw him playing in Nationals Park, there was enough room in that OF that line drives escaped to the gaps, and showed why Alonso already has 12 doubles this season. Obviously you don’t want to make any finite judgements on a handful of ABs, but there’s something about seeing a person live that just doesn’t translate to highlight or live TV, and with Alonso, I could just see that there’s something there.

Talking to a league mate after yesterday’s game, I feel that his comparison of Alonso to John Olerud is spot on – Alonso may never hit more than 20-25 HR in a season, but his line drive approach should help him consistently hit around .300 with 35+ doubles every year. Of course, those stats won’t make Alonso the prototypical 1B for fantasy purposes but as a UT or CI guy, he will be the type of player that can allow you to roster a poor BA/high K guy like Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena.

If Alonso can reach that ceiling, it should make him an attractive keeper option in leagues with 7+ keepers or in leagues that count OBP. He has posted around a 10% BB% in his time in the majors and this year has a K% less than 17%, showing solid strike zone judgement. These skills will make Alonso a solid contributor year in and year out, even if he may never rank as a Top 10 fantasy 1B.

This may not be a skill set that makes you sit up and drool but it is one that should be effective and keep the blood pressure down as Alonso should avoid severe swings in his stats.

If you find yourself looking for a safe option at 1B, don’t overlook the only interesting offensive player in San Diego. I mean someone has to knock in runs down there right?

A third round draft pick in 2007, Kansas City Royals LHP Danny Duffy was the first of a wave of promising young arms to flood the Royals farm system with major league caliber talent. At age 20, Duffy represented the Royals in the MLB Futures Game and the following spring, he earned an invitation to Spring Training.

All that promise almost slipped through the Royals fingers though as Duffy decided during the spring that he wanted to retire from baseball to reexamine his priorities.

Fortunately for the Royals, Duffy decided in June that he wanted to return to baseball and despite missing the first few months of the minor league season, he showed he still had that power arm the Royals coveted, hitting 95-97 mph consistently through the rest of the season. Despite the layoff, Duffy proved he was still one of the top arms in the system.

Heading into 2011, Duffy wasn’t even the highest ranked LHP in his own organization though. In a system as deep as Kansas City’s was in 2011, Duffy entered the year overshadowed by John Lamb and Mike Montgomery, while Chris Dwyer, also a lefty, was ranked close behind him.

All four LHP’s spent the final games of 2010 in Double A, but it was Montgomery who had spent the most time at that level and appeared to be first in line to get a shot at the first avalable spot in the major league rotation. Montgomery got off to a poor start in 2011 however (which he never recovered from), and Lamb ended up needing Tommy John Surgery early leaving Duffy as the first option for an early season promotion.

Duffy’s major league debut was anything but dominating, as he finished with a 4-8 record while compiling a 5.64 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and giving up 15 HR in 105 1/3 IP. A 4.4 BB/9 and 5 hit batsmen showed just how much Duffy struggled with his command in 2011, but a 7.4 K/9 and a .329 BABIP showed all hope wasn’t lost.

Duffy has looked like a different pitcher in 2012, and it starts with the jump in his average fastball velocity. After sitting in the 93 MPH range last season, Duffy has improved that number to the 97 MPH he flashed when he returned from his retirement in 2010. That spike has helped Duffy post a K/9 over 10 (which is similar to his MiLB numbers) and improve his K/BB over 2. An improvement in his BABIP (down to .315) and his HR/9 (0.8) have helped him start the season off 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.

Duffy still has some growth to undergo and his numbers this year are being helped by a favorable left on base percentage and that low HR/9, but 97 MPH throwing lefties are the mythical unicorns of baseball and given his track record, Duffy is making a strong case for owners to invest in him now. And since he should be relatively cheap to acquire given his lack of track record to this point, he is the perfect target for owners rebuilding their franchises to take a flier on.

His path to the big leagues may have been more unusual than the road others have taken, but his talent and passion seem to have him on the path to fantasy stardom.

This is the Nolan Reimold fantasy/keeper owners and Orioles fans have been waiting for.

After a debut that saw him hit .279/.365/.466 with 15 HR in 358 AB in 2009, Reimold has disappointed fantasy players to the point he became irrelevant, going undrafted in almost all types of fantasy leagues the last two seasons.

But in 46 AB to start off 2012, Reimold has already amassed 5 HR (1/3 of his career high), with a .370/.383/.783 slash line. Obviously the average will fall, especially if his 11-1 K/BB ratio is any indicator. Also, given a BABIP around .400 and a HR/FB% of 42%, the HR rate will slow down as well. Now, that doesn’t mean he won’t hit more than 15, it just means his final total won’t match his current pace. Given full time ABs, Reimold will be a sleeper source for power.

Now that he’s living up to the promise he showed during his rookie year, the question moves from how long will he keep this up to will Reimold be worthy of keeping past this season. Historically speaking, Reimold’s skills have always hinted at a possible breakout but health and prolonged slumps have always gotten in the way.

As of right now, those who are rebuilding should grab Reimold as his imminent breakout is just the type of upside an owner looking towards the future wants to latch on to. For those competing in 2012, it probably isn’t a bad idea to grab him now and see how he holds up during the season. At worst, you could trade him to that rebuilding owner in your league for the player you need to win your league championship.

I’m still hesitant to go in all Reimold and expect the production he’s teasing us with currently. I am however, in favor of taking a gamble on his skills. And if he proves to be an April mirage? At least you got a couple of solid games from him before he turned back into the player we’ve come to expect – one that isn’t relevant in most fantasy league formats.

An after-thought in most leagues heading into the season, one of the hottest players in 2012 so far is Minnesota OF Josh Willingham. One of those players who always seems to be available in the free agent pool, Willingham has posted a .389/.476/.778 line to start the season, while posting 8 R, 4 HR, 8 RBI and 1 SB – good enough to land him as the 5th best player on ESPN’s Player Rater.

Obviously small season caveats are abundant at this point, but with such a strong start the question that pops up is, will Willingham be keeper worthy for 2013?

Willingham’s skills are a mixed bag at this point – obviously his obscene .435 BABIP is the reason he’s hitting .389 but his 9.5% BB% is more than 1% lower than his career norm and his 25% K% is right in line with his career numbers. While these stats suggest he will slow down somewhat, there are a couple of major red flags sending off warning signs as well. Willingham currently has a GB% of 48%, over 10% more than any percentage he’s posted since 2007. And despite the huge increase in GB%, Willingham has 4 HR in 42 PA, thanks to an unsustainable 44% HR/FB%.

Willingham posted a career-best 29 HR and 98 RBI while playing for Oakland last season, but with three other seasons of 20+ HR, he should continue to be a decent source of power. Given the dramatic drop off in offense across the majors the last couple of years, those numbers are definitely roster worthy.

But are those numbers keeper worthy? In most leagues they aren’t. But if Willingham builds on his success from last season, would he earn a spot as a keeper in deeper leagues?

At this point I’m going to chalk up Willingham’s success to his tremendous good luck. But if his stats keep pace once his skills level out, Willingham could become a cheap keeper target in many league formats.

As we search for the next Jose Bautista while trying to keep the numbers in perspective, sometimes we run into the Willingham’s of the majors – players whose current skills don’t quite support the current level of production, but they do support the possibility of improved production. So for now, I’m going to say Willingham still isn’t keeper material but he could easily change all of that by the end of the season.

What are your thoughts Willingham owners?

As we sit here on the eve of the non-Japanese opener of the baseball season, there are keeper league owners that are already focusing on 2013. So, in order to get a jump on the competition, Keeper Search will highlight players that are under the radar right now but could be keeper worthy by the offseason.

To lead off Keeper Search for 2012, I’ve decided to focus on a guy I am really high on for this year and beyond, Orioles SP Brian Matusz.

Matusz was a trendy sleeper heading into last season but multiple injuries helped him post some of the worst stats a starting pitcher has ever posted in MLB history.

Having seen Matusz pitch in person multiple times at multiple levels, it was obvious something wasn’t right last year. Knowing that Matusz boasts 4 above average pitches, there’s no other explanation other than injury for his diminished fast ball velocity, 3.3 HR/9 and 20% HR/FB% (yes, you read that correctly) last season.

Matusz is again garnering attention from fantasy analysts this year, many of them pointing to his 2010 2H stats as the starting point for his stats this year, believing he will improve on those. And while I don’t put much stock in spring training stats, Matusz has definitely looked like a different pitcher this spring with the most encouraging sign being a 22-3 K/BB ratio.

For keeper league owners, this is the type of late round flyer a rebuilding club needs to take. Given that Matusz was thought at one time to have No. 1 starter potential, the payoff should end up being worth more than the initial investment. And if he gets closer to his potential than anticipated, he could make a really cheap keeper for 2013.

Baltimore’s rotation is going to be ugly at best in 2012, but that doesn’t mean it’s bereft of talent. Just make sure you lock Matusz down before he catches the attention of your league mates.

I hate to judge a player’s long term value on only 26 1/3 innings spread out over two seasons (as of May 18), but given all the buzz Cincinnati Reds lefty pitcher Aroldis Chapman has generated since signing with the Reds before the 2010 season, it seems like now is a critical time to get a good read on his potential.

Defecting from Cuba and signing a 5-year deal with the Reds, Chapman lights up radar guns every time he takes the mound. His debut season in the US would have been the biggest story of the year if Stephen Strasburg hadn’t also made his pro ball debut.

Chapman’s debut was a success and teased of things to come as he went 2-2 in 13 1/3 IP while posting 19 K, 5 BB and a 1.05 WHIP. The early success fueled the talk about Chapman during the offseason and many wondered if he would actually end up taking over the closer role in 2011 given the fact the Reds had no need for a starter.

Buzz continued to grow once 2011 got underway as Chapman opened the season with 11 2/3 scoreless innings in which he went 2-0 with 12 K and a 1.03 WHIP but the chinks in the armor were showing as Chapman had walked 8 of the 12 batters he had allowed to reach base.

In the four appearances since his scoreless streak ended, Chapman has allowed 10 earned runs in 1 1/3 IP (ouch!) while walking 12 batters and striking out only 3. His ERA to-date (he hasn’t pitched since May 15) sits at 6.92 and his K/BB ratio sits at 0.75 (15K and 20 BB). Obviously something is horribly wrong with Chapman and given his track record with guys like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, everyone’s wants to know if Dusty Baker ruined another promising young arm.

Chapman is now on the 15-day DL with shoulder inflammation and owners in re-draft leagues are dropping him like crazy. Obviously a 15-day DL stint shouldn’t have that much impact on a keeper league roster, but if Chapman doesn’t profile as a keeper then you can use his roster spot for someone else.

Given how easily his small sample size can be influenced by one or two good or bad outings, looking at the underlying skills can be deceiving. Before this season Chapman had a 3.80 K/BB but this year it has dropped to  0.75. However, his K/9 rate remains above 10.0, opposing BA has dropped from .196 to .143 and opposing SLG is down from .217 to .190 – these are all elite numbers.

Unfortunately, Chapman is still valued more on his name than his production and while middle relievers are valuable to have if you are trying to control your ratio categories, there are few, if any, that have any business being kept from one season to the next. And as things look right now, there are no immediate plans to move Chapman into the rotation and he is not next in line to inherit the closing role. Unless something changes that allows Chapman to move to one of those roles, he is not worthy of a keeper spot at this point.

If you can stash him on the DL, it won’t hurt to keep him there for the time being but if he’s on your bench, I would look to try and cash in on his name value before it’s gone. Chapman and his heater will eventually make a bigger mark on the MLB landscape but the odds are it won’t be for a couple more years.

At the end of April I looked at the value Ian Stewart still possessed in keeper leagues. Since that time, Stewart has hit the cover off the ball at AAA Colorado Springs, has been recalled to the majors to man 3B again, continued to struggle at the major league level and lost his roster spot and was sent back to AAA when Ty Wigginton returned from the DL.

To say things haven’t gone well for Stewart in 2011 is an understatement. In re-draft leagues, Stewart has no value and no place on a roster – he’s become a wait and see for 2012.

But for those of us in keeper leagues that are unfortunate enough to have Stewart, has this latest run of events changed anything? Well, that depends.

Probably the easiest thing for any fantasy analyst to say in any situation that involves swapping one guy out for another is to exclaim, “it depends upon your teams’ needs.” Unfortunately, while that may be the best advice, it still doesn’t answer the question – in this case, is Ian Stewart still a keeper consideration?

As I look at Stewart’s career numbers and promise, I can’t help but think he’s following the same path of former uber-prospect turned turned post-hype sleeper Alex Gordon. Like Gordon, Stewart had some success early on that hinted at better things to come. Unfortunately, those skills have still failed to translate to success in the majors. The Royals sent Gordon down last year in hopes of getting him straightened out, which the Rockies have used with Stewart, and it seems to have worked as Gordon had a solid conclusion to 2010 and a nice start to 2011.

Stewart immediately started hitting again the night he returned to the minors which makes you wonder what’s happening that’s causing him to struggle so much in the majors. Granted, you can look at the skills and point to his terrible CT% and lack of walks, but those numbers aren’t in line with his career numbers so something seems to be going on.

If you have a way of keeping Stewart at a minimal cost, it may be worth it since a huge payoff is still a very real (but growing smaller) possible outcome. However, if you need the spot he is occupying or you can move him to an owner willing to take on the risk that comes with owning Stewart, it’s probably best to part ways with him at this point.

Fading fast is Stewart’s chance to be a true power hitting 3B – best case, he hits a career-high 25 or so HRs within the next 3 years. What you need to ask yourself is whether that amount of production is worth keeping at the cost you’re paying. Going back to our Alex Gordon example, those who held on to him to this point have to be happy to see him finally producing – but I bet the production Gordon owners have received still hasn’t outweighed the agony they went through the last few years. Hopefully, Stewart’s not the same way.

When looking through the free agent pool for potential keepers, one player I have seen often – and one that I just can’t ever get a handle on – is Royals IF Mike Aviles.

Given that he is one of the hottest pickups in fantasy baseball right now, I decided it was time to try and figure out what his long-term potential could be.

When I normally do my player analysis, I first focus only on underlying skills measures to see which players are showing the skills necessarily to sustain success. I then follow that up by looking at the stats to get an idea of which players may be overvalued or undervalued based on their performance and I create my lists from there.

In order to understand the problem I have when I look at Aviles, let’s take a look at his skills each year, followed by his output:

2008 skills – 4% BB%, 14% K%, .833 OPS, .357 BABIP
2008 stats – 419 AB, .325/.354/.480, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 68 R, 8 SB

2009 skills – 3% BB%, 22% K%, .458 OPS, .223 BABIP
2009 stats – 120 AB, .183/.208/.250, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 10 R, 1 SB

2010 skills – 4% BB%, 12% K%, .748 OPS, .327 BABIP
2010 stats – 424 AB, .304/.335/.413, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 63 R, 14 SB

At first glance, it appears 2009 is an injury-riddled outlier of a season that should be thrown out due to poor health, small sample size issues and bad luck. But when I look at 2008 and 2010 I can’t fully buy into those numbers either given the extremely low BB%, really high BABIPs and the fact that he had injuries issues in both of those seasons too. Now it’s true that each player sets their own BABIP level and that speedsters who hit the ball on the ground can sustain a higher BABIP, but I guess given the lower SB totals I would  never classify Aviles as a burner, making me think he has been a lot more lucky than good in his career.

At the end of the 2011 Aviles will most likely qualify at 2B and 3B and potentially at SS, all positions scarce of top talent. Combining his position flexibility and the solid looking stat line he will have at year’s end because of his great start and many owners will most likely overvalue him heading into 2012.

In my opinion, despite the numbers, I advise you not to get sucked in. Something isn’t quite what it seems with Aviles.

Taking a closer look at 2010, we see that Aviles earned most of his fantasy value from his tremendous hot streak. From April through Sept. 12 last year Aviles posted a .289/.318/.351 line with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 44 R and 7 SB – basically he was an empty BA producer. Then the hot streak kicked in as he batted .364/.398/.648 with 6 HR, 13 RBI, 19 R and 7 SB from September 13 through the rest of the season.

When Aviles is on one of his patented hot streaks, there is no better player in baseball to own. But be warned, once Aviles goes cold, he provides little more than a solid BA, which can be useful but for me, that type of player is not worth keeping.

Stats from baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com were used in this article.

I was looking for a player for this week’s article when I came across this post at Beyond The Boxscore. The guys over there do awesome stuff and given that Ike Davis was a borderline keeper coming into the season, I thought he made a great candidate for this week’s search.

For a team going through the problems the Mets are, it has to be nice to have a player like Davis giving fans hope. A first round pick in the 2008 draft, Davis needed only 769 minor league PA to prove he was ready for the majors despite concerns about holes in his swing MLB pitchers would be able to exploit.

Thanks to an unsettled first base situation though, Davis debuted on April 19, 2010 and showed the Mets he was the answer to that problem posting a slash line of .264/.351/.440 with 19 HR, 73 R and 71 RBI in 147 games.

Coming off a solid rookie campaign, the concerns about Davis seemed to morph from can he produce in the majors to can he keep up the level of performance he established as a rookie. Davis is answering that question this year with a .317/.398/.564 slash line, 5 HR, 20 RBI and 16 R in his first 101 AB.

Because Davis once again appears to be quieting his critics with his performance, I thought a second opinion would help determine what Davis’ status should be in keeper leagues. This is where Bill Petti’s article comes in. Petti decided to compare Pitch f/x data from 2010 and 2011 to see if Davis has changed his approach at all. As pointed out early on in the article, Davis has been the beneficiary of some luck (.365 BABIP and 15.6% HR/F) but even if you factor out the luck he still seems to be improving on last year’s numbers.

Now remember, this is all done with a pretty small sample size for 2011 but given that this year’s numbers seem  to be matching up with 2010 pretty well, it is possible we are seeing an improving Davis. There are still holes in Davis’ game (mainly on stuff away as the article points out) and he has been the beneficiary of some early luck but Davis seems to be offsetting his shortcomings with increased performance in his areas of strength (at least as it relates to the strike zone).

Coming into 2011, I felt Davis was only a keeper if you had him at an extremely low price or if your other 1B options were old and fading (I’m looking at you Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena) but if Davis keeps improving, he could end up being a sleeper that needs to be kept in almost all formats for 2012 and beyond.

If you need a long term solution at 1B it appears Davis could end up being a pretty wise choice. But I would get him sooner rather than later as his price will only continue to go up as he continues to produce.

By Jim Higgins

The tides of change were definitely felt when previously heralded prospects Ian Stewart and Brandon Wood were shipped back to the minors last week. And while this news may have only register as a ripple for owners in most fantasy leagues, for keeper league owners this type of news is more important than who will replace Neftali Feliz as the Rangers closer for two weeks.

We’ll discuss Wood, was DFA’d last week and is now in Pittsburgh, at another time. For now I want to focus my attention on Stewart, and I’ll admit up front that I am a Stewart owner so there is a personal twist to this but my goal is to remain as objective as possible.

Drafted by the Rockies with the 10th pick in the 2003 draft, Stewart came with and created a lot of hype while in the minors. He was on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list for five straight years from 2004-08, topping out at No. 4 overall in 2005, following a 30 HR effort with Asheville in the South Atlantic League.

Stewart always displayed power in the minors, hitting 101 HR in 2,297 AB (giving him a HR/AB rate of 22.7) but he also struggled to make contact as he struck out 540 times.

Despite the contact woes, it appeared as if Stewart would transition well enough to the majors that he would play regularly given that he hit 25 HR in 425 AB in 2009. Of course the .228 BA and 138 strike outs showed how much Stewart still had to work on, but he was earning a long leash because of  his power.

Unfortunately, 2010 wasn’t the encore Stewart had hoped for. After missing time early on Stewart struggled and finished with a .256/.338/.443 slash line, contributing 18 HR and 61 RBI in 386 AB while striking out 110 times. The K rate was improving and the power was still there but Stewart was facing a new challenge in terms of staying healthy. Still, the outlook for 2011 was optimistic.

All that optimism was derailed in Spring Training as Stewart battled injury once again and never got going once the season started. From that point, Rockies Manager Jim Tracy struggled to get Stewart in the lineup and eventually the only way to get Stewart ABs was to send him to Triple A. For Stewart owners, that was the worst-case scenario coming true.

Now that Stewart is toiling in the minors waiting for his next chance, what should keeper owners do? Well, if you have the roster space you have to wait it out. Hopefully, Stewart’s stint in the minors will be similar to Max Scherzer’s last year and he’ll come back with a vengeance. If he does, you can then ride him through the rest of the season or sell high on him if the ups and downs that come with being a Stewart owner are too much for you to handle.

Obviously, selling right now will get you the worst possible return on investment and cutting him could cause you to regret the move later on. Even though I wanted to sell him last week, I finally realized that now, more than ever, was the time to exercise patience. That may be the hardest thing to do, especially if you have a shot at a championship.

But no one ever said this game was easy.

As for what the future holds for Stewart, I say we’ll be lucky if we have any idea what it is once this ordeal is said and done. That’s a tough decision left for the offseason.