Defecting from Cuba and signing a 5-year deal with the Reds, Chapman lights up radar guns every time he takes the mound. His debut season in the US would have been the biggest story of the year if Stephen Strasburg hadn’t also made his pro ball debut.

Chapman’s debut was a success and teased of things to come as he went 2-2 in 13 1/3 IP while posting 19 K, 5 BB and a 1.05 WHIP. The early success fueled the talk about Chapman during the offseason and many wondered if he would actually end up taking over the closer role in 2011 given the fact the Reds had no need for a starter.

Buzz continued to grow once 2011 got underway as Chapman opened the season with 11 2/3 scoreless innings in which he went 2-0 with 12 K and a 1.03 WHIP but the chinks in the armor were showing as Chapman had walked 8 of the 12 batters he had allowed to reach base.

In the four appearances since his scoreless streak ended, Chapman has allowed 10 earned runs in 1 1/3 IP (ouch!) while walking 12 batters and striking out only 3. His ERA to-date (he hasn’t pitched since May 15) sits at 6.92 and his K/BB ratio sits at 0.75 (15K and 20 BB). Obviously something is horribly wrong with Chapman and given his track record with guys like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, everyone’s wants to know if Dusty Baker ruined another promising young arm.

Chapman is now on the 15-day DL with shoulder inflammation and owners in re-draft leagues are dropping him like crazy. Obviously a 15-day DL stint shouldn’t have that much impact on a keeper league roster, but if Chapman doesn’t profile as a keeper then you can use his roster spot for someone else.

Given how easily his small sample size can be influenced by one or two good or bad outings, looking at the underlying skills can be deceiving. Before this season Chapman had a 3.80 K/BB but this year it has dropped to  0.75. However, his K/9 rate remains above 10.0, opposing BA has dropped from .196 to .143 and opposing SLG is down from .217 to .190 – these are all elite numbers.

Unfortunately, Chapman is still valued more on his name than his production and while middle relievers are valuable to have if you are trying to control your ratio categories, there are few, if any, that have any business being kept from one season to the next. And as things look right now, there are no immediate plans to move Chapman into the rotation and he is not next in line to inherit the closing role. Unless something changes that allows Chapman to move to one of those roles, he is not worthy of a keeper spot at this point.

If you can stash him on the DL, it won’t hurt to keep him there for the time being but if he’s on your bench, I would look to try and cash in on his name value before it’s gone. Chapman and his heater will eventually make a bigger mark on the MLB landscape but the odds are it won’t be for a couple more years.

To say things haven’t gone well for Stewart in 2011 is an understatement. In re-draft leagues, Stewart has no value and no place on a roster – he’s become a wait and see for 2012.

But for those of us in keeper leagues that are unfortunate enough to have Stewart, has this latest run of events changed anything? Well, that depends.

Probably the easiest thing for any fantasy analyst to say in any situation that involves swapping one guy out for another is to exclaim, “it depends upon your teams’ needs.” Unfortunately, while that may be the best advice, it still doesn’t answer the question – in this case, is Ian Stewart still a keeper consideration?

As I look at Stewart’s career numbers and promise, I can’t help but think he’s following the same path of former uber-prospect turned turned post-hype sleeper Alex Gordon. Like Gordon, Stewart had some success early on that hinted at better things to come. Unfortunately, those skills have still failed to translate to success in the majors. The Royals sent Gordon down last year in hopes of getting him straightened out, which the Rockies have used with Stewart, and it seems to have worked as Gordon had a solid conclusion to 2010 and a nice start to 2011.

Stewart immediately started hitting again the night he returned to the minors which makes you wonder what’s happening that’s causing him to struggle so much in the majors. Granted, you can look at the skills and point to his terrible CT% and lack of walks, but those numbers aren’t in line with his career numbers so something seems to be going on.

If you have a way of keeping Stewart at a minimal cost, it may be worth it since a huge payoff is still a very real (but growing smaller) possible outcome. However, if you need the spot he is occupying or you can move him to an owner willing to take on the risk that comes with owning Stewart, it’s probably best to part ways with him at this point.

Fading fast is Stewart’s chance to be a true power hitting 3B – best case, he hits a career-high 25 or so HRs within the next 3 years. What you need to ask yourself is whether that amount of production is worth keeping at the cost you’re paying. Going back to our Alex Gordon example, those who held on to him to this point have to be happy to see him finally producing – but I bet the production Gordon owners have received still hasn’t outweighed the agony they went through the last few years. Hopefully, Stewart’s not the same way.

Given that he is one of the hottest pickups in fantasy baseball right now, I decided it was time to try and figure out what his long-term potential could be.

When I normally do my player analysis, I first focus only on underlying skills measures to see which players are showing the skills necessarily to sustain success. I then follow that up by looking at the stats to get an idea of which players may be overvalued or undervalued based on their performance and I create my lists from there.

In order to understand the problem I have when I look at Aviles, let’s take a look at his skills each year, followed by his output:

2008 skills – 4% BB%, 14% K%, .833 OPS, .357 BABIP
2008 stats – 419 AB, .325/.354/.480, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 68 R, 8 SB

2009 skills – 3% BB%, 22% K%, .458 OPS, .223 BABIP
2009 stats – 120 AB, .183/.208/.250, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 10 R, 1 SB

2010 skills – 4% BB%, 12% K%, .748 OPS, .327 BABIP
2010 stats – 424 AB, .304/.335/.413, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 63 R, 14 SB

At first glance, it appears 2009 is an injury-riddled outlier of a season that should be thrown out due to poor health, small sample size issues and bad luck. But when I look at 2008 and 2010 I can’t fully buy into those numbers either given the extremely low BB%, really high BABIPs and the fact that he had injuries issues in both of those seasons too. Now it’s true that each player sets their own BABIP level and that speedsters who hit the ball on the ground can sustain a higher BABIP, but I guess given the lower SB totals I would  never classify Aviles as a burner, making me think he has been a lot more lucky than good in his career.

At the end of the 2011 Aviles will most likely qualify at 2B and 3B and potentially at SS, all positions scarce of top talent. Combining his position flexibility and the solid looking stat line he will have at year’s end because of his great start and many owners will most likely overvalue him heading into 2012.

In my opinion, despite the numbers, I advise you not to get sucked in. Something isn’t quite what it seems with Aviles.

Taking a closer look at 2010, we see that Aviles earned most of his fantasy value from his tremendous hot streak. From April through Sept. 12 last year Aviles posted a .289/.318/.351 line with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 44 R and 7 SB – basically he was an empty BA producer. Then the hot streak kicked in as he batted .364/.398/.648 with 6 HR, 13 RBI, 19 R and 7 SB from September 13 through the rest of the season.

When Aviles is on one of his patented hot streaks, there is no better player in baseball to own. But be warned, once Aviles goes cold, he provides little more than a solid BA, which can be useful but for me, that type of player is not worth keeping.

Stats from baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com were used in this article.

For a team going through the problems the Mets are, it has to be nice to have a player like Davis giving fans hope. A first round pick in the 2008 draft, Davis needed only 769 minor league PA to prove he was ready for the majors despite concerns about holes in his swing MLB pitchers would be able to exploit.

Thanks to an unsettled first base situation though, Davis debuted on April 19, 2010 and showed the Mets he was the answer to that problem posting a slash line of .264/.351/.440 with 19 HR, 73 R and 71 RBI in 147 games.

Coming off a solid rookie campaign, the concerns about Davis seemed to morph from can he produce in the majors to can he keep up the level of performance he established as a rookie. Davis is answering that question this year with a .317/.398/.564 slash line, 5 HR, 20 RBI and 16 R in his first 101 AB.

Because Davis once again appears to be quieting his critics with his performance, I thought a second opinion would help determine what Davis’ status should be in keeper leagues. This is where Bill Petti’s article comes in. Petti decided to compare Pitch f/x data from 2010 and 2011 to see if Davis has changed his approach at all. As pointed out early on in the article, Davis has been the beneficiary of some luck (.365 BABIP and 15.6% HR/F) but even if you factor out the luck he still seems to be improving on last year’s numbers.

Now remember, this is all done with a pretty small sample size for 2011 but given that this year’s numbers seem  to be matching up with 2010 pretty well, it is possible we are seeing an improving Davis. There are still holes in Davis’ game (mainly on stuff away as the article points out) and he has been the beneficiary of some early luck but Davis seems to be offsetting his shortcomings with increased performance in his areas of strength (at least as it relates to the strike zone).

Coming into 2011, I felt Davis was only a keeper if you had him at an extremely low price or if your other 1B options were old and fading (I’m looking at you Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena) but if Davis keeps improving, he could end up being a sleeper that needs to be kept in almost all formats for 2012 and beyond.

If you need a long term solution at 1B it appears Davis could end up being a pretty wise choice. But I would get him sooner rather than later as his price will only continue to go up as he continues to produce.

The tides of change were definitely felt when previously heralded prospects Ian Stewart and Brandon Wood were shipped back to the minors last week. And while this news may have only register as a ripple for owners in most fantasy leagues, for keeper league owners this type of news is more important than who will replace Neftali Feliz as the Rangers closer for two weeks.

We’ll discuss Wood, was DFA’d last week and is now in Pittsburgh, at another time. For now I want to focus my attention on Stewart, and I’ll admit up front that I am a Stewart owner so there is a personal twist to this but my goal is to remain as objective as possible.

Drafted by the Rockies with the 10th pick in the 2003 draft, Stewart came with and created a lot of hype while in the minors. He was on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list for five straight years from 2004-08, topping out at No. 4 overall in 2005, following a 30 HR effort with Asheville in the South Atlantic League.

Stewart always displayed power in the minors, hitting 101 HR in 2,297 AB (giving him a HR/AB rate of 22.7) but he also struggled to make contact as he struck out 540 times.

Despite the contact woes, it appeared as if Stewart would transition well enough to the majors that he would play regularly given that he hit 25 HR in 425 AB in 2009. Of course the .228 BA and 138 strike outs showed how much Stewart still had to work on, but he was earning a long leash because of  his power.

Unfortunately, 2010 wasn’t the encore Stewart had hoped for. After missing time early on Stewart struggled and finished with a .256/.338/.443 slash line, contributing 18 HR and 61 RBI in 386 AB while striking out 110 times. The K rate was improving and the power was still there but Stewart was facing a new challenge in terms of staying healthy. Still, the outlook for 2011 was optimistic.

All that optimism was derailed in Spring Training as Stewart battled injury once again and never got going once the season started. From that point, Rockies Manager Jim Tracy struggled to get Stewart in the lineup and eventually the only way to get Stewart ABs was to send him to Triple A. For Stewart owners, that was the worst-case scenario coming true.

Now that Stewart is toiling in the minors waiting for his next chance, what should keeper owners do? Well, if you have the roster space you have to wait it out. Hopefully, Stewart’s stint in the minors will be similar to Max Scherzer’s last year and he’ll come back with a vengeance. If he does, you can then ride him through the rest of the season or sell high on him if the ups and downs that come with being a Stewart owner are too much for you to handle.

Obviously, selling right now will get you the worst possible return on investment and cutting him could cause you to regret the move later on. Even though I wanted to sell him last week, I finally realized that now, more than ever, was the time to exercise patience. That may be the hardest thing to do, especially if you have a shot at a championship.

But no one ever said this game was easy.

As for what the future holds for Stewart, I say we’ll be lucky if we have any idea what it is once this ordeal is said and done. That’s a tough decision left for the offseason.

Keeper Search is a new feature running here on Keeper Experts where we’ll break down a player’s performance and assess his keeper value. This feature will run once a week and if you have a player you’d like to see assessed, let me know either in the comments or through the mailbox.

Today’s focal point is Logan Morrison, OF for the Florida Marlins.

Now, the easy thing to do would be to say is Morrison is a keeper in almost all formats and under most circumstances given his age and potential. However, the objective here is not just to say whether a player is a keeper or not, but to share why.

The 23-year-old OF was a 22nd round draft pick of the Marlins in 2005 and was rated as a Top 20 prospect by Baseball America in both 2009 and 2010, meaning he has the pedigree (and the hype) most keeper league owners are looking for.

The stats seem to back up the hype somewhat given that in over 1,600 minor league ABs he’s hit .292 with a .383 OBP, 245 R, 53 HR and 274 RBI. The only real knock on Morrison’s minor league career has to be his injury history.

We don’t have a ton of major league data to parse given that Morrison made his major league debut on July 27, 2010 against the Giants but in 350 PA (through Sunday),  he’s hit .291 with a .397 OBP, 51 R, 6 HR and 29 RBI, numbers right in line with his minor league stats.

Also working in his favor is the fact that Florida seems to do a really good job developing players for the majors and Morrison appears to be one of the latest guys in that trend.

Morrison’s track record in both the majors and minors shows this early season power burst may be a mirage due to his flat swing plane but he’s always had great plate patience, which is a plus, and he should be a top BA contributor year in and year out.

Given that BA is a category often overlooked, it could be easy to overlook Morrison. But if you are looking for a solid building block for your next dynasty, Morrison fits the mold. And while I said it would be easy to just say Morrison is a keeper in almost all formats and under most circumstances, now you know why that statement is true.

As I’ve been preparing my keeper league team for the 2011 season, one thing I’ve noticed is that January seems to be prospect season. For many keeper leagues owners, prospects represent the potential we can horde in an effort to claim fantasy championship glory. I mean, what can be better than saying that not only did I win my fantasy championship, but I won it with my expert scouting that led me to target Buster Posey in minor league draft in 2009?

Unfortunately, for every Posey that pans out there are many more top prospects that have yet, and may never, reach the promising potential they once showcased. And that’s my focus today, looking at those former can’t miss prospects that might finally be ready to have the breakout year many of us have been waiting for.

Alex Gordon – Saying Kansas City fans felt the 2006 Minor League Player of the Year was the second coming of George Brett may sound blown out of proportion, but that was truly the hype surrounding Gordon. Unfortunately for Gordon and Royals fans, he has done nothing at the major league level to live up to that hype. Gordon destroyed AAA pitching in his midseason demotion last year, showing he still has the talent, it just refuses to come with him to the majors.

A 2009 hip injury seems to have derailed the promising start to Gordon’s career and hopefully 2010 isn’t a precursor of things to come. Some have suggested the Royals are the cause of his problems and a change of scenery is what he needs to get his career back on track. Regardless, if you are playing to win this year, Gordon probably won’t even cross your radar. But if you are rebuilding and need a guy with upside, Gordon is still one to watch. I traded for him last year in hopes he snaps out of his funk, but that is a move for the truly desperate at this point.

Joba Chamberlain – The Yankees have handled him with his own set of rules for years, and yet they have little to show for it. Bouncing between starter and reliever seems to have hindered Chamberlain’s progress while trying to save his arm and now the former No. 3 rated Baseball America prospect (in 2008) is a middle reliever with no apparent shot at starting and a blocked road to the closer’s role by the Yankees recent signing of Rafael Soriano. If you’ve held on to Joba hoping the Yankees would finally unleash his talent, it may be time to dump him. If you’re looking to add Joba in hopes he eventually takes over for Mariano Rivera, only add him if you’re prepared to wait until at least 2013 for him to get his opportunity.

Cameron Maybin – As a Padres fan, Maybin is the poster child for the way a cash-strapped organization should find talent, look for guys who have fallen out of favor and send over spare parts to get him. Hey, it worked with Adrian Gonzalez years before right?

As a fantasy owner though, caution should still be exercised with the speedy Maybin. Sure, Maybin’s top notch speed fits right in with what the Padres do offensively, but remember, Petco Park is tough on hitters. And when you strike out in about 30% of your plate appearances, it will be hard for him to capitalize on his best skill if he can’t get on base. On the plus side, Maybin will finally be given every opportunity to win and keep the CF job in San Diego and will probably be able to play through any struggles he has, unlike his time in Detroit and Florida. If you need speed, he is definitely a gamble worth taking, but keep in mind it may be another year or two before this 24-year-old actually pays off.

Matt LaPorta – Another power hitter who has failed to live up to expectations, LaPorta was the main piece Cleveland got from Milwaukee when the Indians traded away CC Sabathia. At the time, the deal seemed to be what LaPorta needed, as it got him away from positional logjams in Milwaukee but since he has been dealt, he has only 19 HRs, 62 RBI, a .232 BA and 557 ABs in two seasons.

If you look at LaPorta’s underlying skills though, the potential for a breakout is still there. After a slow start, LaPorta came back from a stint in the minors and finished with an 11% BB% and a 45% FB%. If his BABIP improves from the .250 range it sat at last year, and his HR/F rate improves from 9%, that long-awaited power surge should take place. The results have been ugly so far and he should come cheap, which means the potential for profit seems inevitable.

Wade Davis – Before Tampa Bay fans were clamoring for Jeremy Hellickson to get a shot in the rotation, they were clamoring for Davis. After finally getting a September callup in 2009, Davis made the rotation in 2010 and struggled, prompting Tampa fans to increase their calls for Hellickson. Luckily for Davis, the Rays stuck with him and things seemed to click by July as Davis went 7-1 in his final 14 starts, posting a 3.48 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Davis may or may not post huge strikeout totals (he only posted a 6.1 K/9 last year after debuting with an 8.9 K/9 in 2009) but the fact that most of the attention has moved on to Hellickson and other members of Tampa’s talented rotation means Davis will probably be a bargain. And given the number of subpar pitchers many leagues will draft, I could think of worse pitchers to take a flyer on. He may not be keeper material yet, but with an uptick in K/9 this year he easily could be.

Rick Porcello – After a strong debut in 2009, Porcello wasn’t only a target for keeper leagues, but single season leagues as well. Unfortunately, Porcello was unable to build on his numbers from 2009 and ended up with a 10-12 record, a 4.92 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 27 major league starts in 2010 – hardly numbers any owner would want.

I wish I could say there’s hope for Porcello but looking at his underlying skills, if there is any regression to the mean in his stats, it probably won’t make him any better than a 4.50 ERA or so pitcher. His BB/9 is fine at 2.1 but when your K/9 sits around 4.6, you won’t have a terrible amount of success. At only 22, Porcello could still improve into a quality big league starter but chances are it won’t be in 2011 and probably not even 2012, making him a guy I would hesitate to hold onto in a keeper league.

Have a post-hype player you’d like to get a second opinion on that we didn’t talk about here? Use the Mailbox to ask us about him.

Fantasy baseball leagues are often won by those who roster low-cost or late-round breakout players in addition to the perennial studs. In 2010, winning teams rostered Carlos Gonzalez, Delmon Young, Kelly Johnson, Jose Bautista, Mat Latos, David Price and Ubaldo Jimenez. In 2009, it was Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Zack Greinke, Andrew Bailey and Josh Johnson.

Since everyone knows Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez will be great in 2011, we will spend our time trying to figure out which players to target late in the draft or for minimal auction dollars, who will hopefully lead our team to a 2011 championship or at least strengthen our keeper list going forward.

Jay Bruce has been on breakout lists since before his first Major League at bat. However, he has yet to hit .300, 30 HRs or 100 RBI in a season – and thus has yet to “break out.” It’s easy to forget that Bruce is still only 23 years old despite having played 3 years in the majors already. Don’t forget the immense talent he has – it really is a matter of when he hits .300 with 30 HRs and 100 RBI, not if. I also believe he will produce a couple of 40 HR seasons during his career, so if you can jump in and acquire him now you’ll have made a solid investment, especially in keeper leagues. Even if you’re playing in a re-draft league Bruce makes a good 2011 speculation based on his .300+/.400+/.600+ slash line during August, September and October last year.

Billy Butler has all the tools to be one of the best hitters in the game. He has a discerning eye at the plate, taking a free pass whenever he isn’t given something decent to hit.  When pitchers do put the ball over the plate, Butler has no problem making contact. He has plenty of raw power to produce 30+ HR seasons. The primary thing holding him back is that almost half of the balls he puts in play are pounded into the infield dirt. If he can turn on a few more pitches in 2011 and hit some more fly balls, we could be looking at .300/.400/.500 production and a keeper league star in the making.

Chris Davis has burned many of us over the last few years. He’s been on these lists and failed to live up to expectations due to his Mark Reynolds-like inability to make contact. Also like Reynolds, Davis has immense power and a good eye at the plate. I’m not going to tell you to make him an early pick or to spend more than a dollar or two on him in your auction, but if everything goes right he has the ability to produce a 40 HR season with a BA that wouldn’t kill you.

Despite the fact that B.J. Upton is only 26 years old, this will be his 7th season in the majors. Upton has proven over the years that he has elite speed and knows how to take a walk. On the flip side, his power production has been inconsistent and his ability to hit for average has been subject to BABIP rather than pure skill. However, if you combine the best of his annual statistics over the years you’ve got a .300/.386/.508 slash line with 24 HRs, 82 RBI and 44 SB. Again, he’s only 26 and has all the talent in the world. If he could ever put it all together a .300, 30 HR, 50 SB season would be the result.  Relative to what they will cost to acquire in 2011 I’d take Upton over Carlos Gonzalez.

When Travis Snider was drafted in 2006 he was widely regarded as the best high school bat in the draft and many scouts thought he’d move very quickly through the minors. They proved to be right as Snider made his major league debut at the end of his third professional season. Snider has been slowed by nagging injuries over the years, but nothing that looks to be a concern going forward. He has a simple swing, power, strength and great bat speed – all the tools necessary to hit for average and power. He has struggled with a high strikeout rate as a professional, but I think he will make good enough contact that his power and natural hitting ability will not be inhibited. Snider is a prime target for keeper league owners and makes a solid 2011 play as well.

As an amateur, Stephen Drew was once called “the perfect combination of baseball tools and baseball skills” by a professional scout. While he has certainly been a solid major league contributor, I think it’s pretty safe to say he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations nor had that “breakout” season just yet. This is good news for those of us looking for a potential stud SS to speculate on in re-draft and even keeper leagues. Drew puts over 40% of his balls in play into the air which, when coupled with his natural swing and bat speed, bodes well for a power breakout. Unbeknownst to most, Drew has more triples than anyone else in the NL over the last 2 seasons. As you may or may not know, triples are more of a speed indicator than power and as such there could be some hidden SB skills hiding in Drew’s arsenal if he gets the opportunity to run.  Best case scenario for a Drew breakout would be .300, 30 HR, 20 SB.

Ian Stewart is one of those prototypical post-hype players just waiting to breakout. Most people will look at the pedestrian counting stats and par or sub-par batting averages and label him as such. But you and I are going to look beyond that and be a little smarter than those people. Stewart has a number of qualities that make him a solid bet to become a star 3B in the near future. First and foremost is Stewart’s power. He has shown the ability to hit the ball out of the park with mammoth home runs in both the majors and minors. Stewart is a fantastic athlete who runs the bases well and has the ability to swipe 15-20 bases a season even though his speed is merely Major League average. His quick bat and good eye at the plate allow him to let the ball travel deep into the zone before pulling the trigger and drive the ball out of the park to the opposite field. He also won’t hesitate to take a walk if a pitcher is nibbling. The only things that have held Stewart back from becoming a star are his low, but ever-improving, contact rate and his struggles with LHP – which have eaten into his plate appearances in the majors. Stewart’s contact rate has steadily risen from 60% during his brief call up in 2007 to 72% in 2010. Despite the fluctuating contact rate, he has maintained a double-digit walk rate showing an even, steady approach at the plate. Patience is the key word for managers dealing with Stewart in keeper leagues. When it all comes together a .280/.370/.550 hitter will emerge and more upside/potential is there, especially if he figures out how to unlock the Coors’ field magic like teammates Carlos Gonzalez (.893/.798 Home/Road Career OPS) and Troy Tulowitzki (.926/.790 Home/Road Career OPS) obviously have. Stewart’s career home/road OPS split is .795/.770 and was even worse in 2010 at .757/.802. I don’t think I need to spell this out for you, but I will anyway – Stewart is just as good of a hitter on the road as Tulo and CarGo, but for some reason he hasn’t figured out how to utilize the “Coors Effect” to his benefit. When he does … Upside = .290, 40 HR, 20 SB (though probably not just yet).

Jordan Zimmermann missed most of the 2010 season due to Tommy John surgery, but worked his way back ahead of schedule and was able to quickly make his way through 4 minor league levels and pitch 31 innings for the Nationals by the end of the season. Zimmermann looked less rusty than most returning from TJ surgery as his control was just as good as it was in 2009. On the other hand, his fastball and slider command would noticeably abandon him at times and his frustration with that was visible on the mound. Before the surgery, Zimmermann showed the ability to strike out more than a batter per inning with a good walk rate (2.9 BB/9) and a GB tilt to boot. He throws strikes and works quickly with four above average pitches.  Zimmermann will definitely go undervalued in 2011 and could be a Top 5 NL SP by the beginning of 2012.

Brandon Morrow‘s season ending stats don’t provide the true picture of a SP who really blossomed as the season wore on. He has always had top-of-the-rotation stuff via a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a sharp-breaking, mid 80’s slider that works as a devastating strikeout pitch. Control, on the other hand, has always been the thing holding Morrow back. However, something seemed to click in June, July and August when he posted BB/9 rates of 2.7, 3.5 and 3.0 respectively. If he can maintain that improved control for most of the season, he will be a very valuable SP in 2011 and beyond.

I watched Brian Matusz pitch at AA Bowie in 2009 and he was absolutely devastating. Most of his 2010 season was anything but. He really struggled through most of the spring and summer, but then right around the time new skipper Buck Showalter took over Matusz starting pitching a bit more like that guy I watched in Bowie. His K/BB ratio improved significantly and with it his ERA and WHIP. The O’s started winning around that time and so did Matusz. His first 21 starts netted him 3 wins but from August on he won 7 of his final 11 starts. We would be wise to temper our expectations a bit because Matusz is a notorious fly ball pitcher in the hitter-friendly AL East, but I still expect a vast overall improvement in 2011 and think he’s a good bet for a sub-4.00 ERA and 170+ strikeouts.

Quick Strikes:

Daniel Bard – Dominating stuff and ML results with only a declining incumbent standing between him and one of the best closing gigs around.

Gordon Beckham – Very disappointing 1st half overshadowed BIG July and August power months. 2011 upside = .280, 30 HR, 10 SB.

Coming Soon: Penetrating deeper in the player pool to find breakout candidates for Dynasty and 20-team leagues.

In an effort to actually come up with helpful stuff for the fantasy baseball community I am going to start a couple of series that I hope will provide insight and answer the questions the keeper league managers are struggling to find the answers to. These different series will debut over the next few weeks, with today being the debut for one of them.

I was looking at my blog stats recently and noticed that a lot of my search engine traffic comes from people trying to find out if a specific player is keeper worthy. So let’s answer that question. Below are the top player searches that have brought people to this blog and whether the player in question is keeper worthy.In a vacuum some of these players seem like no-brainers, the perfect candidates to build your team around. However, I prefer to look at context whenever I can, and while I can’t address every single keeper format I can provide some scenarios in which it may not be so cut and dry.

Brian Matusz, P, Orioles
Formats to keep him in: If you have Matusz on a farm roster, he should be kept. If you have him on your MLB roster already and you can afford for him to use a keeper slot and a roster slot, he should be kept.

Formats not to keep him in: If you are looking to compete in 2010 and he either costs you $10 or more in auction money or is one of only 2 or 3 players you can keep, you probably have to throw him back.

Final thoughts: It will take another season or two before Matusz provides consistent value year after year. If you are in a situation where you can afford to wait for him to develop, do. Only under the most rare of circumstances should he be dropped at this point.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Red Sox
Formats to keep him in: The Greek God of Walks should be a top keeper candidate in all formats. With the potential for a .300+ BA and 20-30 HR, Youk’s value plays well at either corner (although this is probably the last year he has 3B eligibility).

Formats not to keep him in: Only if you are on the hook for a contract of $40+ should you consider not keeping Youk. Now in his early 30′s, it is conceivable that a manager trying to rebuild would look at Youk as an expendable piece but my suggestion here would be that if you have Youk on your roster and you are rebuilding, use his consistency and multi-position eligibility as a way to get the rebuilding pieces you are looking for.

Final thoughts: Youk is going to be a solid fantasy piece for a couple more seasons so if you have him, hopefully you are set up to win now and can enjoy the productivity he can give you. His value is even higher in leagues that use OBP and/or OPS.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
Formats to keep him in: Ah, Big Papi, what do we do with you. Those who kept him in 09 were pulling their hair out most of last season. If you are built to win now and have room for a 20-25 HR hitter who can only fill a UT spot then you have a case for keeping him. Personally, I’d rather keep Jim Thome if I had to chose an aging slugger with no position.

Formats not to keep him in: Devastating BA? Check. Declining OBP and OPS? Check. Power loss? Check. I think its safe to say Ortiz is unkeepable in most formats. Unless your decision is between dropping Ortiz or Omar Vizquel, your safe dumping Ortiz. If you are entertaining thoughts of keeping Vizquel, you have bigger problems.

Final thoughts: Ortiz’s name will still carry a lot of value in fantasy league’s but that is all you will get is a name. Let some other guy in your league struggle with him. Chances are his name will also help in the auction portion of your roster building he is sure to clear a few bucks from the table.

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers
Formats to keep him in: One of my best moves last year was trading a slumping Jimmy Rollins for Ethier and John Danks. It didn’t help me much in the way of 2009 but with an OF filled with a bunch of veterans on the wrong side of 30 on a team going nowhere, I now have a great piece to rebuild my OF with. With 30+ HR potential, Ethier should be kept in almost all formats.

Formats not to keep him in: I honestly can’t think of many formats in which you would let Ethier get away. Unless your OF already has Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford, I don’t see Ethier being available in a lot of keeper leagues.

Final thoughts: Ethier is entering his peak years has shown the potential to be a top-flight fantasy OF. If you own Ethier, make sure you take advantage of what should be another 30+ HR season and if you are looking to rebuild your team, Ethier makes a good target if you hope to compete soon.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
Formats to keep him in: It’s funny to think that last year at this time we were all wondering if this kid would ever get called up. Another favorite of mine, we all knew the speed was MLB ready but we had no idea if the power ever would be. While I wouldn’t bet on him to win any HR titles, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flirt with 20/20 this year and maybe even 30/30 once he gets closer to his peak. Who wouldn’t benefit from holding onto that type of potential.

Formats not to keep him in: Like Matusz, the trouble with all young players is being able to afford the patience necessary to let them develop into the top flight MLBer’s they tease us into believing they will become.

Ricky Nolasco, P, Marlins
Formats to keep him in: I need to be upfront and say that Nolasco has bailed out my pitching staffs in single year leagues the last two years. He was a key waiver wire pickup in ’08 and I was able to trade for him after his early struggles last year and benefit from his rebound. That said, Nolasco is only a keeper in certain situations. My ideal situation for keeping Nolasco would be in a league where you have 12+ teams, keep 12+ players and you are weak on pitching. In my 12 team, 14 player keeper league I would not keep Nolasco if I he was on my roster because I have other pitchers I would prefer to keep.

Formats not to keep him in: Obviously if I am only keeping him in situations with lots of keepers and a weak roster of pitchers, I am not keeping him in most formats. That’s not to say he’s not worth targeting in your league’s draft of auction, I just think there are better players to keep.

Final thoughts: Nolasco is a useful pitcher and has been a key player for me the past two seasons but this is where keeper leagues get tricky. In my opinion it is a lot easier to reacquire Nolasco in a draft/auction for what he is worth than it is to reacquire a young player with tons of potential you really like. I am actually using this methodology with a couple of my pitchers this year so at the very least I will practice what I preach.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Red Sox
Formats to keep him in: Beltre is the toughest player on this list to gauge. Before signing with the Red Sox, I had no problems letting him go in my 12-team, 14-keeper league. But combine the fact that he is in a better lineup with the fact that my team is really weak at the corners (and my league mates are hording the best corner players) and I now have a major dilemma. Beltre is probably posing this problem for many owners and I right now I am leaning towards keeping him given my situation. In deep leagues (14+ teams) with lots of keepers (12+) he should be kept.

Formats not to keep him in: My opinion is that Beltre is not a keeper in most cases given his age, his declining bat and the fact that Boston signed him mainly to shore up the defense. Unless your league counts defense, nothing there really exudes confidence. It is true that Beltre has hit around 20 HR in 4 of the last 5 seasons but his health isn’t what it used to be.

Final thoughts: If healthy, Beltre can probably reach double digits in both HR and SB … barely. You need more power or speed that that from your starting 3B. If I personally end up keeping Beltre, it will be done kicking and screaming all the way to the keeper declaration deadline. I would not hinge my 2010 title run on keeping guys like Beltre if it can be avoided.

Brandon Webb, SP, Diamondbacks
Formats to keep him in: The other guy giving me a lot of sleepless nights is Webb. I built my keeper team around Webb last year and heading into ’09 I really thought I could make a run my first year in my league. Boy did my season crash and burn on opening day. I am willing to give Webb a mulligan because if he comes back from injury without any problems he should be a Cy Young contender again and that potential is too much for me to pass on. If you held on to him throughout all of ’09, there is no reason to bail on him now.

Formats not to keep him in: In the offseason not a lot can be done that will clearly make a difference and so my only suggestion here is that if you can’t afford to wait and see how Webb does in the spring then you need to move him. Throwing this guy back into the player pool isn’t a good idea and I strongly urge all Webb owners who stuck with him to find a way to make it work.

Final thoughts: Webb was a Cy Young winner in ’06 and finished second in the voting in ’07 and ’08. Unless he follows the Chris Carpenter path to being continually injured, this guy should rebound without any problems. Patience is an important skill to have in fantasy baseball and I strongly urge any Webb owner to continue exercising it until after the start of the season.

I hope this proves useful as you start making your keeper lists. If you have any other players you’d like to discuss, leave a comment below or send me a note using the contact page.